A couple of weeks ago I was watching an episode of Real Time with Bill Maher (a hilarious political commentary show on HBO, Fridays at 9PM CT) in which one of Bill's guests was the futurist Ray Kurzweil. Although I hadn't heard of him at the time, I was quickly intrigued by his personality, demeanor, and theories (the guy really looks like Woody Allen's nerdier brother!)
Kurzweil and his theories are the focus of a recent documentary called The Transcendent Man, as well as an article in TIME written by Lev Grossman, called "2045: The Year Man Becomes Immortal."
Kurzweil is definitely a man of great intellect and proved to be a prodigy at an early age. In 1965, at the age of 17, he designed a "computer" that composed a piece of classical music. Since then, he has gone on to invent several inventions, possess countless patents, and create a number of scientific institutes and intellectual conferences. Even Bill Gates called him "the best person I know at predicting the future of artificial intelligence."
The futuristic ideas that Kurzweil puts forward are based upon the exponential growth of computing power and follows along the line of Moore's Law, i.e. that the number of transistors that you can put on a microchip doubles about every two years. Yet Kurzweil calls it "the law of accelerating returns" and adopts it for his futuristic prediction of human society. But the idea is certainly not novel. In the 1960's, the mathematician I.J. Good called it the "intelligence explosion." He said, "Let an ultraintelligent machine be defined as a machine that can far surpass all the intellectual activities of any man however clever. Since the design of machines is one of these intellectual activities, an ultraintelligent machine could design even better machines; there would then unquestionably be an "intelligence explosion," and the intelligence of man would be left far behind. Thus the first ultraintelligent machine is the last invention that man need ever make." That's awesome, let's just sit back and relax! Right?
Well...if only it were that easy. If society indeed turns out the way Kurzweil predicts (and he does have a very good track record!) we will be forced to face an unimaginable number of ethical dilemmas. Kurzweil has a term for it: The Singularity. It refers to the time point at which computers will become more intelligent than humans, a time point that Kurzweil predicts will be reached by 2045.
Furthermore, for us neuroscientists out there, he estimates that we will reverse-engineer the human brain by the mid 2020's. If I understand this correctly, we will know exactly how every function of the brain works in 15 years? Being a bit familiar with the field, I am greatly skeptical of this timeline. Yes, computing power grows exponentially, but will it always do so, and will common science be able to keep up with this progress? We are but merely humans after all...
The fact that Kurzweil's first computer could create music, create art, is nearly blasphemous. If art is a form of self-expression, shouldn't it require a self? We assume that artificial intelligence can't possess the capacity for self-awareness, but is it impossible? Artificial intelligence has long been a subject of science fiction, but with the advances of science and technology, could it become reality?
What exactly The Singularity will entail is hotly debated. There are many who think that in a Darwinian world, creating a more dominant life form is a BAD idea. For instance, we could end up in a scenario much like that depicted in The Terminator. Yet, one of Kurzweil's goals is to assure that any artificial intelligence would be friendly to humans. Good luck with that... Perhaps our best bet is to join forces with them and create a synergistic cyborg partnership. Perhaps there are aspects of organic biology that are just impossible in the silicon world. And we certainly are reminded on a second-by-second basis of how important computers are to everyday human life.
One of the most direct applications of exponential computing growth will be in the biological realm of life extension. Kurzweil has established strong collaborations with other scientists in the fields of genetics and nanotechnology to create innovations for human health and survival. For instance, could you imagine cell-sized nanorobots with the processing power of a billion iPhones that patrol your body and report upon your status of health and disease? Would you want to live forever? In fact, one of Kurzweil's main priorities is to provide the ability for life extension, and selfishly to be alive when it occurs! I, for one, would probably only want to live two lifetimes, and certainly only in my 20's!
So, check out the article and documentary, and just imagine yourself in 35 years...
C3PO, checking out.
Great post! I love thinking about our robotic future.
ReplyDeleteI think robots could definitely create art. Because each artistic medium comes with its own rules and standards of beauty, a robot could inject randomness on top of these rules and create art that would be largely indistinguishable from human endeavors. Also, the final judgement of "art" or "not art" is always in the eye of the viewer. Human viewers would always see patterns and meaning in any artistic piece, even one that was created by an artificially intelligent being.